Today / England - FA WSL / Everton W vs Chelsea W

Everton W vs Chelsea W Prediction— England - FA WSL

Regular Season - 20 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 11:00

Everton W

PPG 0.67 · HOME

1 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Chelsea W

PPG 1.78 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 61.3% vs bookmaker-implied 85.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.9%0-19.4%0-211.3%0-39.0%0-4+9.5%1 1-03.3%1-17.9%1-29.5%1-37.6%1-4+8.0%2 2-01.4%2-13.3%2-24.0%2-33.2%2-4+3.4%3 3-00.4%3-10.9%3-21.1%3-30.9%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.2%4+-20.3%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 14.5% 6.3% 16.00 +132.0%

Draw 24.2% 17.4% 5.75 +39.1%

Away win 61.3% 85.5% 1.17 -28.3%

Over 2.5 59.0% 67.6% 1.48 -12.7%

Over 3.5 40.6% 46.5% 2.15 -12.7%

BTTS 57.2% 47.6% 2.10 +20.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 19 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 68%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -1.3%

Bet Hit 74%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-4

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)2.4 BTTS prob57.2%

A 61% / xG 0.8-2.4 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 57%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 11.3%

#2 1–2 9.5%

#3 1–1 7.9%

#4 0–3 9.0%

#5 0–1 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Everton W0.8

Chelsea W2.4

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.0% · O3.5 PROB 40.6%

Form & verdict PPG

EVERTON W · PPG 0.67

CHELSEA W · PPG 1.78

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.78) vs Home POOR (0.67)

Win probability 1X2

Everton W (H) 14.5%

ODDS 16.00 · IMPLIED 6.3% EV +132.0%

Draw 24.2%

ODDS 5.75 · IMPLIED 17.4% EV +39.1%

Chelsea W (A) 61.3%

ODDS 1.17 · IMPLIED 85.5% EV -28.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Everton W face Chelsea W in England - FA WSL on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Everton W a 14% chance, the draw 24% and Chelsea W 61%, so Chelsea W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Everton W and 2.4 for Chelsea W (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Everton W are averaging 0.67 points per game versus 1.78 for Chelsea W. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +132.0%. This match finished 1-4.

Everton W vs Chelsea W Prediction— England - FA WSL

Match Preview & Prediction

More England - FA WSL Predictions