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Wisla Plock vs Radomiak Radom Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Matchday 30 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 10:15

Wisla Plock

PPG 1.93 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLLD

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Radomiak Radom

PPG 0.64 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDLL

// Model verdict

BTTS 56% chance

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.6%0-16.8%0-23.0%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-012.8%1-111.4%1-25.1%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.8%2-19.6%2-24.3%2-31.3%2-4+0.3%3 3-06.0%3-15.4%3-22.4%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.7%4+-13.3%4+-21.5%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.5% 40.7% 2.46 +14.4%

Draw 28.4% 29.9% 3.35 -4.9%

Away win 25.0% 36.5% 2.74 -31.5%

Over 2.5 50.2% 51.3% 1.95 -2.1%

Over 3.5 25.8% 29.4% 3.40 -12.3%

BTTS 52.6% 57.1% 1.75 -8.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 74 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -8.6%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.6%

H 46% / xG 1.7-0.9 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 1–0 12.8%

#3 2–0 10.8%

#4 2–1 9.6%

#5 0–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Wisla Plock1.7

Radomiak Radom0.9

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.2% · O3.5 PROB 25.8%

Form & verdict PPG

WISLA PLOCK · PPG 1.93

RADOMIAK RADOM · PPG 0.64

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

Chance this pick lands

56%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.93) vs P(Home)=46.5%

Win probability 1X2

Wisla Plock (H) 46.5%

ODDS 2.46 · IMPLIED 40.7% EV +14.4%

Draw 28.4%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -4.9%

Radomiak Radom (A) 25.0%

ODDS 2.74 · IMPLIED 36.5% EV -31.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Wisla Plock face Radomiak Radom in Poland - Ekstraklasa on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Wisla Plock a 47% chance, the draw 28% and Radomiak Radom 25%, so Wisla Plock are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Wisla Plock and 0.9 for Radomiak Radom (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Wisla Plock are averaging 1.93 points per game versus 0.64 for Radomiak Radom. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +14.4%. This match finished 0-1.

Wisla Plock vs Radomiak Radom Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Match Preview & Prediction

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