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Katowice vs Motor Lublin Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Matchday 29 ·Friday, April 17, 2026, 16:00

Katowice

PPG 1.86 · HOME

LAST 5

DWDDD

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Motor Lublin

PPG 1.23 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWDL

// Model verdict

BTTS 62% chance

Model probability 57.7% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-18.8%0-26.9%0-33.6%0-4+2.0%1 1-07.4%1-111.6%1-29.0%1-34.7%1-4+2.6%2 2-04.9%2-17.6%2-25.9%2-33.1%2-4+1.7%3 3-02.1%3-13.3%3-22.6%3-31.3%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.5%4+-21.1%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.2% 50.0% 2.00 -35.6%

Draw 24.7% 27.4% 3.65 -9.8%

Away win 43.0% 29.9% 3.35 +44.0%

Over 2.5 54.7% 60.6% 1.65 -9.7%

Over 3.5 32.4% 38.2% 2.62 -15.1%

BTTS 57.7% 63.7% 1.57 -9.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 74 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -8.6%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob57.7%

A 43% / xG 1.3-1.6 / O2.5 55% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 1–2 9.0%

#3 0–1 8.8%

#4 2–1 7.6%

#5 1–0 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Katowice1.3

Motor Lublin1.6

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.7% · O3.5 PROB 32.4%

Form & verdict PPG

KATOWICE · PPG 1.86

MOTOR LUBLIN · PPG 1.23

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

Chance this pick lands

62%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.86) > Away AVERAGE (1.23)

Win probability 1X2

Katowice (H) 32.2%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -35.6%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -9.8%

Motor Lublin (A) 43.0%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV +44.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Katowice face Motor Lublin in Poland - Ekstraklasa on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Katowice a 32% chance, the draw 25% and Motor Lublin 43%, so Motor Lublin are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Katowice and 1.6 for Motor Lublin (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Katowice are averaging 1.86 points per game versus 1.23 for Motor Lublin. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +44.0%. This match finished 3-2.

Katowice vs Motor Lublin Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Match Preview & Prediction

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