Today / Kapfenberger vs Bregenz

Kapfenberger vs Bregenz Prediction

Friday, April 17, 2026

Kapfenberger

PPG 1.36 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Bregenz

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.36) vs P(Home)=40.6%

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.5%0-15.7%0-24.7%0-32.5%0-4+1.5%1 1-06.1%1-19.9%1-28.0%1-34.3%1-4+2.5%2 2-05.2%2-18.5%2-26.9%2-33.7%2-4+2.2%3 3-03.0%3-14.9%3-23.9%3-32.1%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-13.1%4+-22.5%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.6% — — —

Draw 22.8% — — —

Away win 36.6% — — —

Over 2.5 64.9% — — —

Over 3.5 42.9% — — —

BTTS 65.9% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob65.9%

H 41% / xG 1.7-1.6 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 66%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.9%

#2 2–1 8.5%

#3 1–2 8.0%

#4 2–2 6.9%

#5 1–0 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kapfenberger1.7

Bregenz1.6

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.9% · O3.5 PROB 42.9%

Form & verdict PPG

KAPFENBERGER · PPG 1.36

BREGENZ · PPG 0.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.36) vs P(Home)=40.6%

Win probability 1X2

Kapfenberger (H) 40.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Bregenz (A) 36.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Kapfenberger face Bregenz on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kapfenberger a 41% chance, the draw 23% and Bregenz 37%, so Kapfenberger are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Kapfenberger and 1.6 for Bregenz (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 66% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kapfenberger are averaging 1.36 points per game versus 0.50 for Bregenz. This match finished 3-1.

Kapfenberger vs Bregenz Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

More Football Predictions