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A. Lustenau vs Rapid Wien B Prediction— Austria - 2. Liga

Regular Season - 26 ·Friday, April 17, 2026, 16:00

A. Lustenau

PPG 2.08 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Rapid Wien B

PPG 1.08 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 55.4% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.6%0-16.9%0-23.1%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-012.7%1-111.5%1-25.2%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.6%2-19.6%2-24.3%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-05.9%3-15.3%3-22.4%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.6%4+-13.2%4+-21.5%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.4% 61.7% 1.62 -10.3%

Draw 24.3% 26.0% 3.85 -6.5%

Away win 20.3% 21.1% 4.75 -3.6%

Over 2.5 47.5% 65.4% 1.53 -27.3%

Over 3.5 25.9% 44.4% 2.25 -41.7%

BTTS 48.3% 66.7% 1.50 -27.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -31.5%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 31%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob48.3%

H 55% / xG 1.7-0.9 / O2.5 48% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 12.7%

#2 1–1 11.5%

#3 2–0 10.6%

#4 2–1 9.6%

#5 0–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

A. Lustenau1.7

Rapid Wien B0.9

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.5% · O3.5 PROB 25.9%

Form & verdict PPG

A. LUSTENAU · PPG 2.08

RAPID WIEN B · PPG 1.08

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.08) vs P(Home)=55.4%

Win probability 1X2

A. Lustenau (H) 55.4%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -10.3%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -6.5%

Rapid Wien B (A) 20.3%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV -3.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

A. Lustenau face Rapid Wien B in Austria - 2. Liga on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives A. Lustenau a 55% chance, the draw 24% and Rapid Wien B 20%, so A. Lustenau are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for A. Lustenau and 0.9 for Rapid Wien B (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, A. Lustenau are averaging 2.08 points per game versus 1.08 for Rapid Wien B. This match finished 3-0.

A. Lustenau vs Rapid Wien B Prediction— Austria - 2. Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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