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Admira Wacker vs Sturm Graz B Prediction— Austria - 2. Liga

Regular Season - 27 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 08:30

Admira Wacker

PPG 1.92 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Sturm Graz B

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 63.8% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.1%0-12.4%0-20.9%0-30.2%0-4+0.1%1 1-08.3%1-16.4%1-22.5%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-011.3%2-18.7%2-23.4%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-010.2%3-17.9%3-23.0%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-013.4%4+-110.3%4+-24.0%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.8% 65.4% 1.53 -2.4%

Draw 21.8% 26.3% 3.80 -17.2%

Away win 14.4% 17.4% 5.75 -17.2%

Over 2.5 60.5% 55.6% 1.80 +8.9%

Over 3.5 45.9% 33.9% 2.95 +35.4%

BTTS 52.6% 55.6% 1.80 -5.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -31.5%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)2.7 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.6%

H 64% / xG 2.7-0.8 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.3%

#2 3–0 10.2%

#3 2–1✓ 8.7%

#4 3–1 7.9%

#5 1–1 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Admira Wacker2.7

Sturm Graz B0.8

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.5% · O3.5 PROB 45.9%

Form & verdict PPG

ADMIRA WACKER · PPG 1.92

STURM GRAZ B · PPG 1.25

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.92) > Away AVERAGE (1.25)

Win probability 1X2

Admira Wacker (H) 63.8%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV -2.4%

Draw 21.8%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -17.2%

Sturm Graz B (A) 14.4%

ODDS 5.75 · IMPLIED 17.4% EV -17.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Admira Wacker face Sturm Graz B in Austria - 2. Liga on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Admira Wacker a 64% chance, the draw 22% and Sturm Graz B 14%, so Admira Wacker are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for Admira Wacker and 0.8 for Sturm Graz B (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Admira Wacker are averaging 1.92 points per game versus 1.25 for Sturm Graz B. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +35.4%. This match finished 2-1.

Admira Wacker vs Sturm Graz B Prediction— Austria - 2. Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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