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Melbourne C. B vs Hume City Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL

Regular Season - 10 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 05:00

Melbourne C. B

PPG 1.20 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Hume City

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 59.3% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.5%0-15.4%0-24.2%0-32.2%0-4+1.2%1 1-06.3%1-19.8%1-27.6%1-34.0%1-4+2.2%2 2-05.6%2-18.8%2-26.8%2-33.6%2-4+2.0%3 3-03.4%3-15.3%3-24.1%3-32.1%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-13.5%4+-22.8%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.3% 37.0% 2.70 +6.1%

Draw 30.5% 28.2% 3.55 +8.3%

Away win 30.2% 44.4% 2.25 -32.0%

Over 2.5 59.3% 61.7% 1.62 -3.9%

Over 3.5 43.2% 40.0% 2.50 +8.0%

BTTS 58.5% 67.6% 1.48 -13.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 79 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -12.0%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob58.5%

D 30% / xG 1.8-1.6 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.8%

#2 2–1 8.8%

#3 1–2 7.6%

#4 2–2 6.8%

#5 2–0 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Melbourne C. B1.8

Hume City1.6

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.3% · O3.5 PROB 43.2%

Form & verdict PPG

MELBOURNE C. B · PPG 1.20

HUME CITY · PPG 1.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.20), Away AVERAGE (1.25)

Win probability 1X2

Melbourne C. B (H) 39.3%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV +6.1%

Draw 30.5%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV +8.3%

Hume City (A) 30.2%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -32.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Melbourne C. B face Hume City in Australia - Victoria NPL on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Melbourne C. B a 39% chance, the draw 31% and Hume City 30%, so Melbourne C. B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Melbourne C. B and 1.6 for Hume City (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Melbourne C. B are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 1.25 for Hume City. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +8.3%. This match finished 0-1.

Melbourne C. B vs Hume City Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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