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Sarmiento vs Tigre Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Apertura - 16 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 22:15

Sarmiento

PPG 1.86 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Tigre

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.4%0-110.7%0-24.0%0-31.0%0-4+0.2%1 1-017.2%1-112.8%1-24.7%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.3%2-17.6%2-22.8%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-04.1%3-13.0%3-21.1%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-11.2%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.7% 30.8% 3.25 +51.8%

Draw 30.3% 36.0% 2.78 -15.8%

Away win 23.0% 40.3% 2.48 -43.0%

Over 2.5 30.7% 33.3% 3.00 -7.9%

Over 3.5 13.2% 16.0% 6.25 -17.5%

BTTS 36.6% 43.5% 2.30 -15.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 28%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 69%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -39.3%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob36.6%

H 47% / xG 1.2-0.7 / U2.5 31% / NoBTTS 37%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0✓ 17.2%

#2 0–0 14.4%

#3 1–1 12.8%

#4 0–1 10.7%

#5 2–0 10.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sarmiento1.2

Tigre0.7

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 30.7% · O3.5 PROB 13.2%

Form & verdict PPG

SARMIENTO · PPG 1.86

TIGRE · PPG 1.00

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.86) vs P(Home)=46.7%

Win probability 1X2

Sarmiento (H) 46.7%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV +51.8%

Draw 30.3%

ODDS 2.78 · IMPLIED 36.0% EV -15.8%

Tigre (A) 23.0%

ODDS 2.48 · IMPLIED 40.3% EV -43.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sarmiento face Tigre in Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sarmiento a 47% chance, the draw 30% and Tigre 23%, so Sarmiento are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Sarmiento and 0.7 for Tigre (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 31% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 37% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sarmiento are averaging 1.86 points per game versus 1.00 for Tigre. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +51.8%. This match finished 1-0.

Sarmiento vs Tigre Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Match Preview & Prediction

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