Sarmiento vs Tigre Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina Apertura - 16 Estadio Eva Perón· Junin Saturday, April 25, 2026 22:15

Sarmiento PPG 1.86

1-0 HIT MostLikelyScore

Tigre PPG 1.00

Home· +51.8% 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Sarmiento face Tigre in Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sarmiento a 47% chance, the draw 30% and Tigre 23%, so Sarmiento are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Sarmiento and 0.7 for Tigre (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 31% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 37% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sarmiento are averaging 1.86 points per game versus 1.00 for Tigre. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +51.8%. This match finished 1-0.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 46.7%

Odds: 3.25 EV: +51.8%

Draw 30.3%

Odds: 2.78 EV: -15.8%

Away 23.0%

Odds: 2.48 EV: -43.0%

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 30.7% Odds: 3.00 -7.9%

Over 3.5 13.2% Odds: 6.25 -17.5%

BTTS 36.6% Odds: 2.30 -15.8%

O2.5 UNDER → UNDER ✔ BTTS NO → NO ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-0 ✔

2nd 0-0 ✘

3rd 1-1 ✘

4th 0-1 ✘

5th 2-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Sarmiento

1.20

Tigre

0.74

Model SuggestionNo Bet  ROI TRACKS: Home
Tracked ROI market: Home. 

Verdict & Form

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.86) vs P(Home)=46.7%