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U. de Chile vs U. Catolica Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Regular Season - 11 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 22:00

U. de Chile

PPG 1.50 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

U. Catolica

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 64.2% vs bookmaker-implied 44.6% — a clear edge.

+43.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.4%0-14.7%0-22.1%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-011.0%1-19.7%1-24.3%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.2%2-19.9%2-24.4%2-31.3%2-4+0.3%3 3-07.6%3-16.7%3-23.0%3-30.9%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-06.2%4+-15.5%4+-22.4%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 64.2% 44.6% 2.24 +43.8%

Draw 20.4% 31.3% 3.20 -34.7%

Away win 15.4% 33.3% 3.00 -53.8%

Over 2.5 56.0% 47.6% 2.10 +17.6%

Over 3.5 33.6% 27.0% 3.70 +24.3%

BTTS 51.0% 55.6% 1.80 -8.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 33 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 27%

ROI 10.7%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob51.0%

H 64% / xG 2.0-0.9 / O2.5 56% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.2%

#2 1–0✓ 11.0%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–1 9.7%

#5 3–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

U. de Chile2.0

U. Catolica0.9

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 56.0% · O3.5 PROB 33.6%

Form & verdict PPG

U. DE CHILE · PPG 1.50

U. CATOLICA · PPG 1.40

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.50), Away AVERAGE (1.40)

Win probability 1X2

U. de Chile (H) 64.2%

ODDS 2.24 · IMPLIED 44.6% EV +43.8%

Draw 20.4%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -34.7%

U. Catolica (A) 15.4%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -53.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

U. de Chile face U. Catolica in Chile - Primera División on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives U. de Chile a 64% chance, the draw 20% and U. Catolica 15%, so U. de Chile are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for U. de Chile and 0.9 for U. Catolica (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, U. de Chile are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.40 for U. Catolica. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +43.8%. This match finished 1-0.

U. de Chile vs U. Catolica Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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