Today / D. Pereira vs A. Nacional

D. Pereira vs A. Nacional Prediction

Saturday, April 25, 2026

D. Pereira

PPG 0.50 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

A. Nacional

PPG 1.88 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.88) vs Home POOR (0.50)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.9%0-110.6%0-211.6%0-38.4%0-4+7.6%1 1-04.1%1-18.9%1-29.7%1-37.1%1-4+6.4%2 2-01.7%2-13.8%2-24.1%2-33.0%2-4+2.7%3 3-00.5%3-11.1%3-21.2%3-30.8%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.3%4+-20.3%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 13.2% — — —

Draw 18.8% — — —

Away win 68.0% — — —

Over 2.5 58.2% — — —

Over 3.5 35.8% — — —

BTTS 50.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 55%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)2.2 BTTS prob50.5%

A 68% / xG 0.8-2.2 / O2.5 58% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 11.6%

#2 0–1 10.6%

#3 1–2 9.7%

#4 1–1 8.9%

#5 0–3 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

D. Pereira0.8

A. Nacional2.2

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 58.2% · O3.5 PROB 35.8%

Form & verdict PPG

D. PEREIRA · PPG 0.50

A. NACIONAL · PPG 1.88

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.88) vs Home POOR (0.50)

Win probability 1X2

D. Pereira (H) 13.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 18.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

A. Nacional (A) 68.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

D. Pereira face A. Nacional on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives D. Pereira a 13% chance, the draw 19% and A. Nacional 68%, so A. Nacional are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for D. Pereira and 2.2 for A. Nacional (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, D. Pereira are averaging 0.50 points per game versus 1.88 for A. Nacional. This match finished 1-0.

D. Pereira vs A. Nacional Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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