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Port Melbourne vs Manningham Utd Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL 2

Regular Season - 10 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 05:00

Port Melbourne

PPG 0.80 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

Manningham Utd

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 75.4% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1% — a clear edge.

+31.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.2%0-110.4%0-212.7%0-310.3%0-4+11.3%1 1-03.0%1-17.4%1-29.1%1-37.4%1-4+8.1%2 2-01.1%2-12.7%2-23.2%2-32.6%2-4+2.9%3 3-00.3%3-10.6%3-20.8%3-30.6%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 8.9% 30.3% 3.30 -70.6%

Draw 15.6% 25.0% 4.00 -37.6%

Away win 75.4% 57.1% 1.75 +31.9%

Over 2.5 61.2% — — —

Over 3.5 38.8% — — —

BTTS 46.7% 71.4% 1.40 -34.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -15.2%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 4 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)2.4 BTTS prob46.7%

A 75% / xG 0.7-2.4 / O2.5 61% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 12.7%

#2 0–1 10.4%

#3 0–3 10.3%

#4 1–2 9.1%

#5 1–1 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Port Melbourne0.7

Manningham Utd2.4

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.2% · O3.5 PROB 38.8%

Form & verdict PPG

PORT MELBOURNE · PPG 0.80

MANNINGHAM UTD · PPG 1.33

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.33) vs Home POOR (0.80)

Win probability 1X2

Port Melbourne (H) 8.9%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -70.6%

Draw 15.6%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -37.6%

Manningham Utd (A) 75.4%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV +31.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Port Melbourne face Manningham Utd in Australia - Victoria NPL 2 on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Port Melbourne a 9% chance, the draw 16% and Manningham Utd 75%, so Manningham Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Port Melbourne and 2.4 for Manningham Utd (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Port Melbourne are averaging 0.80 points per game versus 1.33 for Manningham Utd. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +31.9%. This match finished 2-1.

Port Melbourne vs Manningham Utd Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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