Today / SM San Juan vs Quilmes

SM San Juan vs Quilmes Prediction

Saturday, April 25, 2026

SM San Juan

PPG 1.25 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Quilmes

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.25) > Away POOR (0.80)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.8%0-18.9%0-23.1%0-30.7%0-4+0.1%1 1-017.5%1-112.1%1-24.2%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.9%2-18.2%2-22.8%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-05.4%3-13.7%3-21.3%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-11.7%4+-20.6%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.8% — — —

Draw 28.1% — — —

Away win 19.0% — — —

Over 2.5 33.7% — — —

Over 3.5 15.2% — — —

BTTS 37.1% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 57%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob37.1%

H 53% / xG 1.4-0.7 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 37%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0✓ 17.5%

#2 0–0 12.8%

#3 1–1 12.1%

#4 2–0 11.9%

#5 0–1 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

SM San Juan1.4

Quilmes0.7

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 33.7% · O3.5 PROB 15.2%

Form & verdict PPG

SM SAN JUAN · PPG 1.25

QUILMES · PPG 0.80

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.25) > Away POOR (0.80)

Win probability 1X2

SM San Juan (H) 52.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 28.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Quilmes (A) 19.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

SM San Juan face Quilmes on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives SM San Juan a 53% chance, the draw 28% and Quilmes 19%, so SM San Juan are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for SM San Juan and 0.7 for Quilmes (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 37% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, SM San Juan are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 0.80 for Quilmes. This match finished 1-0.

SM San Juan vs Quilmes Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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