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Toulouse vs Monaco Prediction— France - Ligue 1

Matchday 31 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 19:05

Toulouse

PPG 1.33 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWWD

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Monaco

PPG 1.29 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDWLL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 63% chance

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 65.8% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+6.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.4%0-14.9%0-23.5%0-31.7%0-4+0.9%1 1-06.5%1-19.5%1-26.9%1-33.3%1-4+1.7%2 2-06.3%2-19.2%2-26.7%2-33.2%2-4+1.6%3 3-04.1%3-15.9%3-24.3%3-32.1%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-03.1%4+-14.5%4+-23.3%4+-31.6%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.0% 27.4% 3.65 +78.8%

Draw 22.0% 26.7% 3.75 -17.5%

Away win 28.9% 52.9% 1.89 -45.4%

Over 2.5 65.8% 61.7% 1.62 +6.6%

Over 3.5 44.0% 39.2% 2.55 +12.2%

BTTS 65.6% 64.5% 1.55 +1.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 34%

ROI -13.2%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob65.6%

H 49% / xG 1.9-1.5 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 66%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.5%

#2 2–1 9.2%

#3 1–2 6.9%

#4 2–2✓ 6.7%

#5 1–0 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Toulouse1.9

Monaco1.5

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.8% · O3.5 PROB 44.0%

Form & verdict PPG

TOULOUSE · PPG 1.33

MONACO · PPG 1.29

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

63%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.33), Away AVERAGE (1.29)

Win probability 1X2

Toulouse (H) 49.0%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV +78.8%

Draw 22.0%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -17.5%

Monaco (A) 28.9%

ODDS 1.89 · IMPLIED 52.9% EV -45.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Toulouse face Monaco in France - Ligue 1 on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Toulouse a 49% chance, the draw 22% and Monaco 29%, so Toulouse are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Toulouse and 1.5 for Monaco (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 66% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Toulouse are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.29 for Monaco. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +78.8%. This match finished 2-2.

Toulouse vs Monaco Prediction— France - Ligue 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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