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Nublense vs OHiggins Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Matchday 11 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 19:00

Nublense

PPG 1.60 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWLL

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

OHiggins

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLDLL

// Model verdict

Home 55% chance

Model probability 71.0% vs bookmaker-implied 47.6% — a clear edge.

+49.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.4%0-13.9%0-21.4%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-011.8%1-18.6%1-23.1%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.9%2-19.4%2-23.4%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-09.5%3-16.9%3-22.5%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-08.7%4+-16.3%4+-22.3%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 71.0% 47.6% 2.10 +49.1%

Draw 18.1% 31.3% 3.20 -42.1%

Away win 11.0% 29.9% 3.35 -63.1%

Over 2.5 56.1% 46.5% 2.15 +20.6%

Over 3.5 33.7% 25.3% 3.95 +33.1%

BTTS 46.1% 54.1% 1.85 -14.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 81 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 31%

ROI 0.5%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 57%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob46.1%

H 71% / xG 2.2-0.7 / O2.5 56% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.9%

#2 1–0 11.8%

#3 3–0 9.5%

#4 2–1 9.4%

#5 1–1 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nublense2.2

OHiggins0.7

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 56.1% · O3.5 PROB 33.7%

Form & verdict PPG

NUBLENSE · PPG 1.60

OHIGGINS · PPG 1.00

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

Chance this pick lands

55%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.60) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Nublense (H) 71.0%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV +49.1%

Draw 18.1%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -42.1%

OHiggins (A) 11.0%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -63.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Nublense face OHiggins in Chile - Primera División on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nublense a 71% chance, the draw 18% and OHiggins 11%, so Nublense are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Nublense and 0.7 for OHiggins (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nublense are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 1.00 for OHiggins. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +49.1%. This match finished 0-2.

Nublense vs OHiggins Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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