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Zeljeznicar vs Velez Mostar Prediction— Bosnia - Premijer Liga

Regular Season - 31 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 18:45

Zeljeznicar

PPG 1.27 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Velez Mostar

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 53.3% vs bookmaker-implied 45.5% — a clear edge.

+17.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.6%0-19.1%0-22.7%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-019.8%1-111.6%1-23.4%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-012.6%2-17.4%2-22.2%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-05.4%3-13.1%3-20.9%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-11.3%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.3% 45.5% 2.20 +17.3%

Draw 29.5% 34.7% 2.88 -15.0%

Away win 17.1% 30.8% 3.25 -44.4%

Over 2.5 28.6% 40.0% 2.50 -28.5%

Over 3.5 11.9% — — —

BTTS 32.0% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 57%

ROI -11.0%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 58%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob32.0%

H 53% / xG 1.3-0.6 / U2.5 29% / NoBTTS 32%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 19.8%

#2 0–0✓ 15.6%

#3 2–0 12.6%

#4 1–1 11.6%

#5 0–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Zeljeznicar1.3

Velez Mostar0.6

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 28.6% · O3.5 PROB 11.9%

Form & verdict PPG

ZELJEZNICAR · PPG 1.27

VELEZ MOSTAR · PPG 1.20

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.27), Away AVERAGE (1.20)

Win probability 1X2

Zeljeznicar (H) 53.3%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +17.3%

Draw 29.5%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -15.0%

Velez Mostar (A) 17.1%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -44.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Zeljeznicar face Velez Mostar in Bosnia - Premijer Liga on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Zeljeznicar a 53% chance, the draw 30% and Velez Mostar 17%, so Zeljeznicar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Zeljeznicar and 0.6 for Velez Mostar (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 29% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 32% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Zeljeznicar are averaging 1.27 points per game versus 1.20 for Velez Mostar. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +17.3%. This match finished 0-0.

Zeljeznicar vs Velez Mostar Prediction— Bosnia - Premijer Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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