Today / Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura / D. Maldonado vs Albion

D. Maldonado vs Albion Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Apertura - 13 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 18:30

D. Maldonado

PPG 3.00 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Albion

PPG 1.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 56.9% vs bookmaker-implied 44.4% — a clear edge.

+28.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.7%0-16.3%0-22.9%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-011.8%1-111.1%1-25.2%1-31.6%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.4%2-19.8%2-24.6%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-06.1%3-15.8%3-22.7%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-04.0%4+-13.8%4+-21.8%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.9% 44.4% 2.25 +28.0%

Draw 23.3% 32.3% 3.10 -27.8%

Away win 19.8% 32.3% 3.10 -38.6%

Over 2.5 50.7% 45.5% 2.20 +11.5%

Over 3.5 28.7% 23.8% 4.20 +20.5%

BTTS 50.5% 54.1% 1.85 -6.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 46%

ROI 7.4%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob50.5%

H 57% / xG 1.8-0.9 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 11.8%

#2 1–1 11.1%

#3 2–0 10.4%

#4 2–1 9.8%

#5 0–0 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

D. Maldonado1.8

Albion0.9

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.7% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

D. MALDONADO · PPG 3.00

ALBION · PPG 1.80

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (3.00) vs P(Home)=56.9%

Win probability 1X2

D. Maldonado (H) 56.9%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV +28.0%

Draw 23.3%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -27.8%

Albion (A) 19.8%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -38.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

D. Maldonado face Albion in Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives D. Maldonado a 57% chance, the draw 23% and Albion 20%, so D. Maldonado are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for D. Maldonado and 0.9 for Albion (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, D. Maldonado are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 1.80 for Albion. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +28.0%. This match finished 1-2.

D. Maldonado vs Albion Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Match Preview & Prediction

More Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura Predictions