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Darmstadt vs Elversberg Prediction— Germany - 2. Bundesliga

Matchday 31 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 18:30

Darmstadt

PPG 2.27 · HOME

LAST 5

LDLDL

3 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Elversberg

PPG 1.60 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWLW

// Model verdict

BTTS 67% chance

Model probability 57.2% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-17.1%0-24.4%0-31.8%0-4+0.7%1 1-09.2%1-111.5%1-27.1%1-33.0%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.5%2-19.3%2-25.8%2-32.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-04.0%3-15.0%3-23.1%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-12.9%4+-21.8%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.2% 35.7% 2.80 +29.4%

Draw 24.4% 27.0% 3.70 -9.7%

Away win 29.4% 44.4% 2.25 -33.9%

Over 2.5 54.8% 66.7% 1.50 -17.8%

Over 3.5 32.4% 45.5% 2.20 -28.7%

BTTS 57.2% 71.4% 1.40 -19.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 52 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -10.2%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-3

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob57.2%

H 46% / xG 1.6-1.2 / O2.5 55% / BTTS 57%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 1–0 9.2%

#4 2–0 7.5%

#5 1–2 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Darmstadt1.6

Elversberg1.2

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.8% · O3.5 PROB 32.4%

Form & verdict PPG

DARMSTADT · PPG 2.27

ELVERSBERG · PPG 1.60

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

67%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.27) > Away GOOD (1.60)

Win probability 1X2

Darmstadt (H) 46.2%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV +29.4%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -9.7%

Elversberg (A) 29.4%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -33.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Darmstadt face Elversberg in Germany - 2. Bundesliga on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Darmstadt a 46% chance, the draw 24% and Elversberg 29%, so Darmstadt are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Darmstadt and 1.2 for Elversberg (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Darmstadt are averaging 2.27 points per game versus 1.60 for Elversberg. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +29.4%. This match finished 3-3.

Darmstadt vs Elversberg Prediction— Germany - 2. Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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