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Cracovia Krakow vs Pogon Szczecin Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Matchday 30 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 18:15

Cracovia Krakow

PPG 1.50 · HOME

LAST 5

DDDDD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Pogon Szczecin

PPG 0.79 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWLWD

// Model verdict

Home 49% chance

Model probability 57.4% vs bookmaker-implied 45.5% — a clear edge.

+26.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.3%0-16.0%0-22.9%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-011.4%1-110.9%1-25.2%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.3%2-19.9%2-24.7%2-31.5%2-4+0.4%3 3-06.2%3-15.9%3-22.8%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-04.2%4+-14.1%4+-21.9%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.4% 45.5% 2.20 +26.3%

Draw 22.9% 29.9% 3.35 -23.3%

Away win 19.7% 31.7% 3.15 -37.9%

Over 2.5 52.3% 52.6% 1.90 -0.6%

Over 3.5 30.1% 30.8% 3.25 -2.2%

BTTS 51.6% 58.8% 1.70 -12.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 74 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -8.6%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob51.6%

H 57% / xG 1.8-1.0 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 11.4%

#2 1–1✓ 10.9%

#3 2–0 10.3%

#4 2–1 9.9%

#5 0–0 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cracovia Krakow1.8

Pogon Szczecin1.0

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.3% · O3.5 PROB 30.1%

Form & verdict PPG

CRACOVIA KRAKOW · PPG 1.50

POGON SZCZECIN · PPG 0.79

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

49%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.50) > Away POOR (0.79)

Win probability 1X2

Cracovia Krakow (H) 57.4%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +26.3%

Draw 22.9%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -23.3%

Pogon Szczecin (A) 19.7%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV -37.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cracovia Krakow face Pogon Szczecin in Poland - Ekstraklasa on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cracovia Krakow a 57% chance, the draw 23% and Pogon Szczecin 20%, so Cracovia Krakow are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Cracovia Krakow and 1.0 for Pogon Szczecin (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cracovia Krakow are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.79 for Pogon Szczecin. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +26.3%. This match finished 1-1.

Cracovia Krakow vs Pogon Szczecin Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Match Preview & Prediction

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