Today / Gorica vs Lok. Zagreb

Gorica vs Lok. Zagreb Prediction

Friday, April 17, 2026

Gorica

PPG 1.29 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Lok. Zagreb

PPG 0.64 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.29) > Away POOR (0.64)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.6%0-19.5%0-25.9%0-32.5%0-4+1.0%1 1-010.1%1-112.6%1-27.9%1-33.3%1-4+1.3%2 2-06.7%2-18.4%2-25.2%2-32.2%2-4+0.9%3 3-03.0%3-13.7%3-22.3%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.6%4+-21.0%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.5% — — —

Draw 26.5% — — —

Away win 35.0% — — —

Over 2.5 47.5% — — —

Over 3.5 25.8% — — —

BTTS 52.4% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 20%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob52.4%

H 38% / xG 1.3-1.2 / O2.5 48% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 1–0 10.1%

#3 0–1 9.5%

#4 2–1 8.4%

#5 1–2 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gorica1.3

Lok. Zagreb1.3

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.5% · O3.5 PROB 25.8%

Form & verdict PPG

GORICA · PPG 1.29

LOK. ZAGREB · PPG 0.64

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.29) > Away POOR (0.64)

Win probability 1X2

Gorica (H) 38.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 26.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Lok. Zagreb (A) 35.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Gorica face Lok. Zagreb on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gorica a 39% chance, the draw 27% and Lok. Zagreb 35%, so Gorica are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Gorica and 1.3 for Lok. Zagreb (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gorica are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 0.64 for Lok. Zagreb. This match finished 0-2.

Gorica vs Lok. Zagreb Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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