Today / NAC Breda vs Ajax Amsterdam

NAC Breda vs Ajax Amsterdam Prediction

Saturday, April 25, 2026

NAC Breda

PPG 1.13 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Ajax Amsterdam

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.13), Away AVERAGE (1.40)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.8%0-19.6%0-29.6%0-36.4%0-4+5.1%1 1-04.9%1-19.9%1-210.0%1-36.7%1-4+5.3%2 2-02.5%2-15.1%2-25.1%2-33.5%2-4+2.8%3 3-00.9%3-11.8%3-21.8%3-31.2%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.6%4+-20.6%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 18.9% — — —

Draw 21.2% — — —

Away win 60.0% — — —

Over 2.5 58.7% — — —

Over 3.5 36.3% — — —

BTTS 55.8% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 54%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob55.8%

A 60% / xG 1.0-2.0 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 10.0%

#2 1–1 9.9%

#3 0–2✓ 9.6%

#4 0–1 9.6%

#5 1–3 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

NAC Breda1.0

Ajax Amsterdam2.0

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 58.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.3%

Form & verdict PPG

NAC BREDA · PPG 1.13

AJAX AMSTERDAM · PPG 1.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.13), Away AVERAGE (1.40)

Win probability 1X2

NAC Breda (H) 18.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Ajax Amsterdam (A) 60.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

NAC Breda face Ajax Amsterdam on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives NAC Breda a 19% chance, the draw 21% and Ajax Amsterdam 60%, so Ajax Amsterdam are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for NAC Breda and 2.0 for Ajax Amsterdam (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, NAC Breda are averaging 1.13 points per game versus 1.40 for Ajax Amsterdam. This match finished 0-2.

NAC Breda vs Ajax Amsterdam Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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