Today / France - Ligue 1 / Angers vs Paris SG

Angers vs Paris SG Prediction— France - Ligue 1

Matchday 31 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 17:00

Angers

PPG 1.47 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLDD

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Paris SG

PPG 2.07 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWWL

// Model verdict

Away 75% chance

Model probability 61.8% vs bookmaker-implied 80.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.1%0-114.3%0-212.6%0-37.5%0-4+4.9%1 1-06.0%1-110.7%1-29.4%1-35.6%1-4+3.7%2 2-02.3%2-14.0%2-23.5%2-32.1%2-4+1.4%3 3-00.6%3-11.0%3-20.9%3-30.5%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.2%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 15.3% 9.1% 11.00 +68.3%

Draw 22.8% 16.9% 5.90 +34.5%

Away win 61.8% 80.6% 1.24 -23.4%

Over 2.5 46.1% 66.7% 1.50 -30.9%

Over 3.5 24.6% 44.4% 2.25 -44.6%

BTTS 43.7% 51.3% 1.95 -14.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 34%

ROI -13.2%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 3 39%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob43.7%

A 62% / xG 0.7-1.8 / O2.5 46% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 14.3%

#2 0–2 12.6%

#3 1–1 10.7%

#4 1–2 9.4%

#5 0–0 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Angers0.7

Paris SG1.8

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.1% · O3.5 PROB 24.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ANGERS · PPG 1.47

PARIS SG · PPG 2.07

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

Chance this pick lands

75%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.07) vs Home AVERAGE (1.47)

Win probability 1X2

Angers (H) 15.3%

ODDS 11.00 · IMPLIED 9.1% EV +68.3%

Draw 22.8%

ODDS 5.90 · IMPLIED 16.9% EV +34.5%

Paris SG (A) 61.8%

ODDS 1.24 · IMPLIED 80.6% EV -23.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Angers face Paris SG in France - Ligue 1 on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Angers a 15% chance, the draw 23% and Paris SG 62%, so Paris SG are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Angers and 1.8 for Paris SG (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Angers are averaging 1.47 points per game versus 2.07 for Paris SG. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +68.3%. This match finished 0-3.

Angers vs Paris SG Prediction— France - Ligue 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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