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Arsenal vs Newcastle Utd Prediction— England - Premier League

Regular Season - 34 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 16:30

Arsenal

PPG 2.38 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Newcastle Utd

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 79.2% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4% — a clear edge.

+14.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.1%0-12.6%0-20.8%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-010.5%1-16.6%1-22.1%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.5%2-18.5%2-22.7%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-011.6%3-17.2%3-22.3%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-013.7%4+-18.6%4+-22.7%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 79.2% 69.4% 1.44 +14.1%

Draw 13.9% 21.3% 4.70 -34.7%

Away win 6.9% 16.7% 6.00 -58.6%

Over 2.5 61.9% 63.7% 1.57 -2.8%

Over 3.5 39.6% 41.7% 2.40 -5.0%

BTTS 43.0% 58.8% 1.70 -26.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 6.3%

Bet Hit 68%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 0 64%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob43.0%

H 79% / xG 2.6-0.6 / O2.5 62% / NoBTTS 43%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.5%

#2 3–0 11.6%

#3 1–0✓ 10.5%

#4 2–1 8.5%

#5 4–0 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Arsenal2.6

Newcastle Utd0.6

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.9% · O3.5 PROB 39.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ARSENAL · PPG 2.38

NEWCASTLE UTD · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

68%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.38), Away AVERAGE (1.00) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Arsenal (H) 79.2%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV +14.1%

Draw 13.9%

ODDS 4.70 · IMPLIED 21.3% EV -34.7%

Newcastle Utd (A) 6.9%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV -58.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Arsenal face Newcastle Utd in England - Premier League on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Arsenal a 79% chance, the draw 14% and Newcastle Utd 7%, so Arsenal are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Arsenal and 0.6 for Newcastle Utd (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 43% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Arsenal are averaging 2.38 points per game versus 1.00 for Newcastle Utd. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +14.1%. This match finished 1-0.

Arsenal vs Newcastle Utd Prediction— England - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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