Today / Wil vs Aarau

Wil vs Aarau Prediction

Saturday, April 25, 2026

Wil

PPG 1.27 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Aarau

PPG 2.13 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.3%0-18.7%0-28.8%0-36.0%0-4+4.9%1 1-04.8%1-19.7%1-29.9%1-36.7%1-4+5.5%2 2-02.7%2-15.4%2-25.5%2-33.8%2-4+3.1%3 3-01.0%3-12.0%3-22.1%3-31.4%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.7%4+-20.7%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 20.4% — — —

Draw 21.1% — — —

Away win 58.5% — — —

Over 2.5 61.1% — — —

Over 3.5 38.8% — — —

BTTS 58.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob58.6%

A 58% / xG 1.1-2.0 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 9.9%

#2 1–1 9.7%

#3 0–2 8.8%

#4 0–1 8.7%

#5 1–3 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Wil1.1

Aarau2.0

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.1% · O3.5 PROB 38.8%

Form & verdict PPG

WIL · PPG 1.27

AARAU · PPG 2.13

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.13) vs Home AVERAGE (1.27)

Win probability 1X2

Wil (H) 20.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Aarau (A) 58.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Wil face Aarau on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Wil a 20% chance, the draw 21% and Aarau 59%, so Aarau are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Wil and 2.0 for Aarau (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Wil are averaging 1.27 points per game versus 2.13 for Aarau. This match finished 2-2.

Wil vs Aarau Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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