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Lechia Gdansk vs Rakow C. Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Matchday 30 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 15:30

Lechia Gdansk

PPG 1.87 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLLL 

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Rakow C.

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 64% chance

Combined xG of 4.0 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 76.3% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a clear edge.

+29.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.8%0-12.8%0-22.1%0-31.0%0-4+0.6%1 1-04.5%1-16.9%1-25.2%1-32.6%1-4+1.4%2 2-05.7%2-18.6%2-26.5%2-33.3%2-4+1.7%3 3-04.7%3-17.1%3-25.4%3-32.7%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-05.3%4+-18.0%4+-26.1%4+-33.1%4+-4+1.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.0% 40.7% 2.46 +45.1%

Draw 18.6% 28.2% 3.55 -34.0%

Away win 22.3% 38.2% 2.62 -41.6%

Over 2.5 76.3% 58.8% 1.70 +29.7%

Over 3.5 56.7% 35.7% 2.80 +58.8%

BTTS 71.5% 63.7% 1.57 +12.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 74 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -8.6%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 74%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob71.5%

H 59% / xG 2.5-1.5 / O2.5 76% / BTTS 72%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.6%

#2 3–1 7.1%

#3 1–1 6.9%

#4 2–2 6.5%

#5 2–0 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lechia Gdansk2.5

Rakow C.1.5

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 76.3% · O3.5 PROB 56.7%

Form & verdict PPG

LECHIA GDANSK · PPG 1.87

RAKOW C. · PPG 1.40

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

Chance this pick lands

64%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.87) > Away AVERAGE (1.40)

Win probability 1X2

Lechia Gdansk (H) 59.0%

ODDS 2.46 · IMPLIED 40.7% EV +45.1%

Draw 18.6%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -34.0%

Rakow C. (A) 22.3%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -41.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lechia Gdansk face Rakow C. in Poland - Ekstraklasa on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lechia Gdansk a 59% chance, the draw 19% and Rakow C. 22%, so Lechia Gdansk are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Lechia Gdansk and 1.5 for Rakow C. (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 76% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 72% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lechia Gdansk are averaging 1.87 points per game versus 1.40 for Rakow C.. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +58.8%. This match finished 1-2.

Lechia Gdansk vs Rakow C. Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Match Preview & Prediction

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