Today / Stomilanki O. W vs UKS SMS Lodz W

Stomilanki O. W vs UKS SMS Lodz W Prediction

Saturday, April 25, 2026

Stomilanki O. W
PPG 0.44 · HOME
1 – 2
FULL TIME
✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY
UKS SMS Lodz W
PPG 1.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.25) vs Home POOR (0.44)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.9%0-13.4%0-26.3%0-37.9%0-4+19.5%1 1-00.9%1-13.3%1-26.1%1-37.6%1-4+18.9%2 2-00.4%2-11.6%2-23.0%2-33.7%2-4+9.1%3 3-00.1%3-10.5%3-21.0%3-31.2%3-4+2.9%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.2%4+-20.3%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.9%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV
Home win 5.4%
Draw 8.6%
Away win 86.0%
Over 2.5 84.8%
Over 3.5 69.1%
BTTS 60.5%
Home O1.5
Away O1.5

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 82%CONFIDENCE
✘ MISS — FT 1-2
xG (home)1.0 xG (away)3.7 BTTS prob60.5%

A 86% / xG 1.0-3.7 / O2.5 85% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–3 7.9%
#2 1–3 7.6%
#3 0–4 7.4%
#4 1–4 7.1%
#5 0–2 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Stomilanki O. W1.0
UKS SMS Lodz W3.7

COMBINED 4.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 84.8% · O3.5 PROB 69.1%

Form & verdict PPG

STOMILANKI O. W · PPG 0.44

UKS SMS LODZ W · PPG 1.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value
63%
UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.25) vs Home POOR (0.44)

Win probability 1X2

Stomilanki O. W (H) 5.4%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Draw 8.6%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
UKS SMS Lodz W (A) 86.0%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Stomilanki O. W face UKS SMS Lodz W on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Stomilanki O. W a 5% chance, the draw 9% and UKS SMS Lodz W 86%, so UKS SMS Lodz W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Stomilanki O. W and 3.7 for UKS SMS Lodz W (4.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-3. There is a 85% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Stomilanki O. W are averaging 0.44 points per game versus 1.25 for UKS SMS Lodz W. This match finished 1-2.

PredictVantage

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