Today / Sileks vs Brera Strumica

Sileks vs Brera Strumica Prediction

Friday, April 17, 2026

Sileks

PPG 1.86 · HOME

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Brera Strumica

PPG 1.36 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.86) > Away AVERAGE (1.36)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.9%0-14.6%0-22.1%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-010.1%1-19.5%1-24.5%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.6%2-19.9%2-24.7%2-31.5%2-4+0.4%3 3-07.4%3-16.9%3-23.2%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-06.2%4+-15.8%4+-22.7%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.9% — — —

Draw 20.1% — — —

Away win 16.0% — — —

Over 2.5 58.3% — — —

Over 3.5 35.9% — — —

BTTS 53.3% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob53.3%

H 64% / xG 2.1-0.9 / O2.5 58% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.6%

#2 1–0 10.1%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–1 9.5%

#5 3–0 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sileks2.1

Brera Strumica0.9

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 58.3% · O3.5 PROB 35.9%

Form & verdict PPG

SILEKS · PPG 1.86

BRERA STRUMICA · PPG 1.36

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.86) > Away AVERAGE (1.36)

Win probability 1X2

Sileks (H) 63.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 20.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Brera Strumica (A) 16.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Sileks face Brera Strumica on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sileks a 64% chance, the draw 20% and Brera Strumica 16%, so Sileks are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Sileks and 0.9 for Brera Strumica (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sileks are averaging 1.86 points per game versus 1.36 for Brera Strumica. This match finished 4-0.

Sileks vs Brera Strumica Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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