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Mannheim vs Schweinfurt Prediction— Germany - 3. Liga

Matchday 35 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 14:30

Mannheim

PPG 1.76 · HOME

LAST 5

DDLWL

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Schweinfurt

PPG 0.24 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDDLL

// Model verdict

Home 72% chance

Model probability 77.3% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0% — a clear edge.

+12.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.0%0-11.9%0-20.9%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-05.8%1-15.7%1-22.8%1-30.9%1-4+0.3%2 2-08.6%2-18.4%2-24.1%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-08.4%3-18.2%3-24.0%3-31.3%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-012.8%4+-112.6%4+-26.1%4+-32.0%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 77.3% 69.0% 1.45 +12.1%

Draw 13.3% 20.8% 4.80 -36.2%

Away win 9.4% 17.9% 5.60 -47.4%

Over 2.5 75.1% 72.5% 1.38 +3.6%

Over 3.5 55.2% 51.3% 1.95 +7.6%

BTTS 59.1% 67.6% 1.48 -12.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 61%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 28%

ROI 16.0%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 81%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)2.9 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob59.1%

H 77% / xG 2.9-1.0 / O2.5 75% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 8.6%

#2 3–0 8.4%

#3 2–1 8.4%

#4 3–1 8.2%

#5 4–0 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mannheim2.9

Schweinfurt1.0

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 75.1% · O3.5 PROB 55.2%

Form & verdict PPG

MANNHEIM · PPG 1.76

SCHWEINFURT · PPG 0.24

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

Chance this pick lands

72%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in GOOD form (1.76), Away POOR (0.24) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Mannheim (H) 77.3%

ODDS 1.45 · IMPLIED 69.0% EV +12.1%

Draw 13.3%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV -36.2%

Schweinfurt (A) 9.4%

ODDS 5.60 · IMPLIED 17.9% EV -47.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Mannheim face Schweinfurt in Germany - 3. Liga on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mannheim a 77% chance, the draw 13% and Schweinfurt 9%, so Mannheim are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.9 for Mannheim and 1.0 for Schweinfurt (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 75% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mannheim are averaging 1.76 points per game versus 0.24 for Schweinfurt. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +12.1%. This match finished 2-2.

Mannheim vs Schweinfurt Prediction— Germany - 3. Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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