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Northcote City vs Port Melbourne Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL 2

Regular Season - 9 ·Friday, April 17, 2026, 10:30

Northcote City

PPG 3.00 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Port Melbourne

PPG 0.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 88.1% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9% — a clear edge.

+14.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.5%0-11.4%0-20.3%0-30.0%0-4+0.0%1 1-010.4%1-14.1%1-20.8%1-30.1%1-4+0.0%2 2-015.4%2-16.1%2-21.2%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-015.1%3-16.0%3-21.2%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-023.0%4+-19.1%4+-21.8%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 88.1% 76.9% 1.30 +14.5%

Draw 9.0% 20.0% 5.00 -55.0%

Away win 2.8% 16.7% 6.00 -83.2%

Over 2.5 64.9% — — —

Over 3.5 42.9% — — —

BTTS 30.9% 64.5% 1.55 -52.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -15.2%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 0 78%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)2.9 xG (away)0.4 BTTS prob30.9%

H 88% / xG 2.9-0.4 / O2.5 65% / NoBTTS 31%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 15.4%

#2 3–0 15.1%

#3 4–0 11.1%

#4 1–0 10.4%

#5 5–0 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Northcote City2.9

Port Melbourne0.4

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.9% · O3.5 PROB 42.9%

Form & verdict PPG

NORTHCOTE CITY · PPG 3.00

PORT MELBOURNE · PPG 0.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

40%

NEUTRAL

No PPG data

Win probability 1X2

Northcote City (H) 88.1%

ODDS 1.30 · IMPLIED 76.9% EV +14.5%

Draw 9.0%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV -55.0%

Port Melbourne (A) 2.8%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV -83.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Northcote City face Port Melbourne in Australia - Victoria NPL 2 on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Northcote City a 88% chance, the draw 9% and Port Melbourne 3%, so Northcote City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.9 for Northcote City and 0.4 for Port Melbourne (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 31% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Northcote City are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 0.00 for Port Melbourne. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +14.5%. This match finished 0-0.

Northcote City vs Port Melbourne Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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