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Melbourne K. vs Manningham Utd Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL 2

Regular Season - 9 ·Friday, April 17, 2026, 10:30

Melbourne K.

PPG 3.00 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Manningham Utd

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 60.0% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.2%0-15.1%0-22.6%0-30.8%0-4+0.3%1 1-010.2%1-110.1%1-25.0%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.0%2-110.0%2-25.0%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-06.6%3-16.5%3-23.3%3-31.1%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-05.1%4+-15.0%4+-22.5%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 60.0% 60.6% 1.65 -1.0%

Draw 21.5% 25.6% 3.90 -16.2%

Away win 18.6% 26.3% 3.80 -29.3%

Over 2.5 56.9% — — —

Over 3.5 34.5% — — —

BTTS 54.2% 73.5% 1.36 -26.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -15.2%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob54.2%

H 60% / xG 2.0-1.0 / O2.5 57% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 10.2%

#2 1–1 10.1%

#3 2–0 10.0%

#4 2–1 10.0%

#5 3–0 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Melbourne K.2.0

Manningham Utd1.0

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 56.9% · O3.5 PROB 34.5%

Form & verdict PPG

MELBOURNE K. · PPG 3.00

MANNINGHAM UTD · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (3.00) vs P(Home)=60.0%

Win probability 1X2

Melbourne K. (H) 60.0%

ODDS 1.65 · IMPLIED 60.6% EV -1.0%

Draw 21.5%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -16.2%

Manningham Utd (A) 18.6%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -29.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Melbourne K. face Manningham Utd in Australia - Victoria NPL 2 on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Melbourne K. a 60% chance, the draw 22% and Manningham Utd 19%, so Melbourne K. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Melbourne K. and 1.0 for Manningham Utd (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Melbourne K. are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 1.50 for Manningham Utd. This match finished 0-0.

Melbourne K. vs Manningham Utd Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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