Today / Ujpest W vs Diosgyori VTK W

Ujpest W vs Diosgyori VTK W Prediction

Saturday, April 25, 2026

Ujpest W

PPG 1.00 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Diosgyori VTK W

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.0 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.9%0-13.7%0-23.7%0-32.4%0-4+1.9%1 1-03.7%1-17.4%1-27.3%1-34.9%1-4+3.8%2 2-03.7%2-17.4%2-27.3%2-34.8%2-4+3.8%3 3-02.5%3-14.9%3-24.9%3-33.2%3-4+2.5%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-13.9%4+-23.8%4+-32.5%4+-4+2.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.8% — — —

Draw 20.8% — — —

Away win 39.4% — — —

Over 2.5 75.8% — — —

Over 3.5 56.2% — — —

BTTS 74.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 60%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob74.5%

H 40% / xG 2.0-2.0 / O2.5 76% / BTTS 74%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.4%

#2 2–1✓ 7.4%

#3 1–2 7.3%

#4 2–2 7.3%

#5 3–1 4.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ujpest W2.0

Diosgyori VTK W2.0

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 75.8% · O3.5 PROB 56.2%

Form & verdict PPG

UJPEST W · PPG 1.00

DIOSGYORI VTK W · PPG 0.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away POOR (0.75)

Win probability 1X2

Ujpest W (H) 39.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 20.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Diosgyori VTK W (A) 39.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Ujpest W face Diosgyori VTK W on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ujpest W a 40% chance, the draw 21% and Diosgyori VTK W 39%, so Ujpest W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Ujpest W and 2.0 for Diosgyori VTK W (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 76% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 75% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ujpest W are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.75 for Diosgyori VTK W. This match finished 2-1.

Ujpest W vs Diosgyori VTK W Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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