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Walsall vs Harrogate Prediction— England - League Two

Matchday 45 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 14:00

Walsall

PPG 1.32 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWLL

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Harrogate

PPG 0.95 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWWL

// Model verdict

Home 51% chance

Model probability 62.8% vs bookmaker-implied 46.5% — a clear edge.

+35.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.3%0-16.3%0-21.9%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-017.1%1-110.5%1-23.2%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.2%2-18.7%2-22.7%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-07.8%3-14.8%3-21.5%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.7%4+-12.9%4+-20.9%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 62.8% 46.5% 2.15 +35.0%

Draw 23.8% 29.4% 3.40 -19.1%

Away win 13.4% 31.3% 3.20 -57.1%

Over 2.5 39.6% 50.0% 2.00 -20.8%

Over 3.5 19.5% 28.2% 3.55 -30.8%

BTTS 37.1% 57.1% 1.75 -35.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 61 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -12.1%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 58%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob37.1%

H 63% / xG 1.7-0.6 / U2.5 40% / NoBTTS 37%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 17.1%

#2 2–0 14.2%

#3 1–1 10.5%

#4 0–0 10.3%

#5 2–1 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Walsall1.7

Harrogate0.6

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 39.6% · O3.5 PROB 19.5%

Form & verdict PPG

WALSALL · PPG 1.32

HARROGATE · PPG 0.95

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

Chance this pick lands

51%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.32) > Away POOR (0.95)

Win probability 1X2

Walsall (H) 62.8%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV +35.0%

Draw 23.8%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -19.1%

Harrogate (A) 13.4%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -57.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Walsall face Harrogate in England - League Two on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Walsall a 63% chance, the draw 24% and Harrogate 13%, so Walsall are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Walsall and 0.6 for Harrogate (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 40% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 37% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Walsall are averaging 1.32 points per game versus 0.95 for Harrogate. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +35.0%. This match finished 0-2.

Walsall vs Harrogate Prediction— England - League Two

Match Preview & Prediction

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