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Shrewsbury vs Fleetwood Prediction— England - League Two

Regular Season - 45 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 14:00

Shrewsbury

PPG 1.45 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

Fleetwood

PPG 1.23 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.6%0-113.4%0-27.1%0-32.5%0-4+0.8%1 1-012.8%1-113.5%1-27.1%1-32.5%1-4+0.8%2 2-06.5%2-16.8%2-23.6%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-02.2%3-12.3%3-21.2%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.7%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 33.7% 31.7% 3.15 +6.2%

Draw 30.2% 31.3% 3.20 -3.4%

Away win 36.1% 43.9% 2.28 -17.7%

Over 2.5 34.2% 46.5% 2.15 -26.5%

Over 3.5 15.6% 25.0% 4.00 -37.6%

BTTS 41.5% 54.6% 1.83 -24.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 9.4%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob41.5%

D 30% / xG 1.0-1.1 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.5%

#2 0–1 13.4%

#3 1–0 12.8%

#4 0–0 12.6%

#5 1–2 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Shrewsbury1.0

Fleetwood1.1

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.2% · O3.5 PROB 15.6%

Form & verdict PPG

SHREWSBURY · PPG 1.45

FLEETWOOD · PPG 1.23

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.45), Away AVERAGE (1.23)

Win probability 1X2

Shrewsbury (H) 33.7%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV +6.2%

Draw 30.2%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -3.4%

Fleetwood (A) 36.1%

ODDS 2.28 · IMPLIED 43.9% EV -17.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Shrewsbury face Fleetwood in England - League Two on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Shrewsbury a 34% chance, the draw 30% and Fleetwood 36%, so Fleetwood are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Shrewsbury and 1.1 for Fleetwood (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Shrewsbury are averaging 1.45 points per game versus 1.23 for Fleetwood. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +6.2%. This match finished 2-2.

Shrewsbury vs Fleetwood Prediction— England - League Two

Match Preview & Prediction

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