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Newport vs Oldham Prediction— England - League Two

Regular Season - 45 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 14:00

Newport

PPG 0.86 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

Oldham

PPG 1.36 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.6%0-115.3%0-210.0%0-34.4%0-4+1.9%1 1-09.8%1-112.8%1-28.4%1-33.7%1-4+1.6%2 2-04.1%2-15.4%2-23.5%2-31.5%2-4+0.7%3 3-01.1%3-11.5%3-21.0%3-30.4%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.4%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.9% 40.3% 2.48 -40.7%

Draw 28.4% 30.8% 3.25 -7.7%

Away win 47.6% 36.2% 2.76 +31.4%

Over 2.5 36.4% 50.0% 2.00 -27.2%

Over 3.5 17.1% 28.6% 3.50 -40.2%

BTTS 41.5% 57.8% 1.73 -28.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 9.4%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob41.5%

A 48% / xG 0.8-1.3 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 15.3%

#2 1–1 12.8%

#3 0–0 11.6%

#4 0–2 10.0%

#5 1–0 9.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Newport0.8

Oldham1.3

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 36.4% · O3.5 PROB 17.1%

Form & verdict PPG

NEWPORT · PPG 0.86

OLDHAM · PPG 1.36

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.36) vs Home POOR (0.86)

Win probability 1X2

Newport (H) 23.9%

ODDS 2.48 · IMPLIED 40.3% EV -40.7%

Draw 28.4%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -7.7%

Oldham (A) 47.6%

ODDS 2.76 · IMPLIED 36.2% EV +31.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Newport face Oldham in England - League Two on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Newport a 24% chance, the draw 28% and Oldham 48%, so Oldham are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Newport and 1.3 for Oldham (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Newport are averaging 0.86 points per game versus 1.36 for Oldham. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +31.4%. This match finished 3-2.

Newport vs Oldham Prediction— England - League Two

Match Preview & Prediction

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