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Colchester Utd vs Notts County Prediction— England - League Two

Matchday 45 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 14:00

Colchester Utd

PPG 1.64 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLLW

0 – 1

FULL TIME

Notts County

PPG 1.55 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWDW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.2%0-18.5%0-24.4%0-31.5%0-4+0.5%1 1-012.0%1-112.4%1-26.5%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.8%2-19.1%2-24.7%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-04.3%3-14.5%3-22.3%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-12.3%4+-21.2%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.0% 34.2% 2.92 +37.2%

Draw 26.2% 29.4% 3.40 -10.9%

Away win 26.8% 43.1% 2.32 -37.8%

Over 2.5 45.7% 51.8% 1.93 -11.8%

Over 3.5 24.3% 29.9% 3.35 -18.6%

BTTS 49.7% 58.8% 1.70 -15.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 61 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -12.1%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 22%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob49.7%

H 47% / xG 1.5-1.0 / O2.5 46% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 1–0 12.0%

#3 2–1 9.1%

#4 2–0 8.8%

#5 0–1✓ 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Colchester Utd1.5

Notts County1.0

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.7% · O3.5 PROB 24.3%

Form & verdict PPG

COLCHESTER UTD · PPG 1.64

NOTTS COUNTY · PPG 1.55

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

50%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.64), Away GOOD (1.55)

Win probability 1X2

Colchester Utd (H) 47.0%

ODDS 2.92 · IMPLIED 34.2% EV +37.2%

Draw 26.2%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -10.9%

Notts County (A) 26.8%

ODDS 2.32 · IMPLIED 43.1% EV -37.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Colchester Utd face Notts County in England - League Two on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Colchester Utd a 47% chance, the draw 26% and Notts County 27%, so Colchester Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Colchester Utd and 1.0 for Notts County (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Colchester Utd are averaging 1.64 points per game versus 1.55 for Notts County. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +37.2%. This match finished 0-1.

Colchester Utd vs Notts County Prediction— England - League Two

Match Preview & Prediction

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