Chesterfield vs Crewe Alexandra Prediction— England - League Two

England - League Two Regular Season - 45 SMH Group Stadium· Chesterfield Saturday, April 25, 2026 14:00

Chesterfield PPG 1.73

2-0 HIT CS4

Crewe Alexandra PPG 1.18

Away· +24.3% ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Chesterfield face Crewe Alexandra in England - League Two on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chesterfield a 54% chance, the draw 23% and Crewe Alexandra 23%, so Chesterfield are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Chesterfield and 1.1 for Crewe Alexandra (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chesterfield are averaging 1.73 points per game versus 1.18 for Crewe Alexandra. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +24.3%. This match finished 2-0.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 54.3%

Odds: 1.57 EV: -14.8%

Draw 23.1%

Odds: 4.00 EV: -7.6%

Away 22.6%

Odds: 5.50 EV: +24.3%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 55.2% Odds: 1.67 -7.8%

Over 3.5 32.8% Odds: 2.65 -13.1%

BTTS 55.3% Odds: 1.67 -7.6%

O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 1-0 ✘

3rd 2-1 ✘

4th 2-0 ✔

5th 0-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Chesterfield

1.81

Crewe Alexandra

1.08

Model SuggestionBTTS -7.6% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -7.6% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Away (+24.3%) — probability too low to qualify.

Verdict & Form

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.73) > Away AVERAGE (1.18)