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Chesterfield vs Crewe Alexandra Prediction— England - League Two

Matchday 45 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 14:00

Chesterfield

PPG 1.73 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWLD

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Crewe Alexandra

PPG 1.18 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLLD

// Model verdict

BTTS 59% chance

Model probability 55.3% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.6%0-16.0%0-23.3%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-010.0%1-110.9%1-25.9%1-32.1%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.1%2-19.8%2-25.3%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-05.5%3-15.9%3-23.2%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-03.7%4+-14.0%4+-22.2%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.3% 63.7% 1.57 -14.8%

Draw 23.1% 25.0% 4.00 -7.6%

Away win 22.6% 18.2% 5.50 +24.3%

Over 2.5 55.2% 59.9% 1.67 -7.8%

Over 3.5 32.8% 37.7% 2.65 -13.1%

BTTS 55.3% 59.9% 1.67 -7.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 61 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -12.1%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob55.3%

H 54% / xG 1.8-1.1 / O2.5 55% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.9%

#2 1–0 10.0%

#3 2–1 9.8%

#4 2–0✓ 9.1%

#5 0–1 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Chesterfield1.8

Crewe Alexandra1.1

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 55.2% · O3.5 PROB 32.8%

Form & verdict PPG

CHESTERFIELD · PPG 1.73

CREWE ALEXANDRA · PPG 1.18

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

59%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.73) > Away AVERAGE (1.18)

Win probability 1X2

Chesterfield (H) 54.3%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -14.8%

Draw 23.1%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -7.6%

Crewe Alexandra (A) 22.6%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV +24.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Chesterfield face Crewe Alexandra in England - League Two on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chesterfield a 54% chance, the draw 23% and Crewe Alexandra 23%, so Chesterfield are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Chesterfield and 1.1 for Crewe Alexandra (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chesterfield are averaging 1.73 points per game versus 1.18 for Crewe Alexandra. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +24.3%. This match finished 2-0.

Chesterfield vs Crewe Alexandra Prediction— England - League Two

Match Preview & Prediction

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