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Cambridge Utd vs Barrow Prediction— England - League Two

Matchday 45 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 14:00

Cambridge Utd

PPG 2.18 · HOME

LAST 5

WDLWD

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Barrow

PPG 0.77 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLLL

// Model verdict

Home 78% chance

Model probability 80.1% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.8%0-12.7%0-20.6%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-013.9%1-16.5%1-21.5%1-30.2%1-4+0.0%2 2-016.5%2-17.7%2-21.8%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-013.0%3-16.1%3-21.4%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-013.6%4+-16.3%4+-21.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 80.1% 76.9% 1.30 +4.1%

Draw 14.3% 22.5% 4.45 -36.4%

Away win 5.6% 8.0% 12.50 -30.0%

Over 2.5 54.0% 50.0% 2.00 +8.0%

Over 3.5 31.7% 29.0% 3.45 +9.4%

BTTS 33.7% 40.8% 2.45 -17.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 61 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -12.1%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 71%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob33.7%

H 80% / xG 2.4-0.5 / O2.5 54% / NoBTTS 34%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 16.5%

#2 1–0 13.9%

#3 3–0✓ 13.0%

#4 4–0 7.7%

#5 2–1 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cambridge Utd2.4

Barrow0.5

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.0% · O3.5 PROB 31.7%

Form & verdict PPG

CAMBRIDGE UTD · PPG 2.18

BARROW · PPG 0.77

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form

Chance this pick lands

78%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.18), Away POOR (0.77) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Cambridge Utd (H) 80.1%

ODDS 1.30 · IMPLIED 76.9% EV +4.1%

Draw 14.3%

ODDS 4.45 · IMPLIED 22.5% EV -36.4%

Barrow (A) 5.6%

ODDS 12.50 · IMPLIED 8.0% EV -30.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cambridge Utd face Barrow in England - League Two on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cambridge Utd a 80% chance, the draw 14% and Barrow 6%, so Cambridge Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Cambridge Utd and 0.5 for Barrow (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 34% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cambridge Utd are averaging 2.18 points per game versus 0.77 for Barrow. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +9.4%. This match finished 3-0.

Cambridge Utd vs Barrow Prediction— England - League Two

Match Preview & Prediction

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