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Bristol Rovers vs Cheltenham Prediction— England - League Two

Matchday 45 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 14:00

Bristol Rovers

PPG 1.55 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWWD

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Cheltenham

PPG 0.95 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLLL

// Model verdict

Home 55% chance

Model probability 55.5% vs bookmaker-implied 55.2% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-16.1%0-23.1%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-010.7%1-111.0%1-25.6%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.6%2-19.8%2-25.1%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-05.7%3-15.9%3-23.0%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.9%4+-14.0%4+-22.0%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.5% 55.2% 1.81 +0.5%

Draw 23.1% 27.8% 3.60 -16.8%

Away win 21.4% 23.8% 4.20 -10.1%

Over 2.5 53.7% 51.8% 1.93 +3.6%

Over 3.5 31.4% 30.3% 3.30 +3.6%

BTTS 53.6% 56.5% 1.77 -5.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 61 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -12.1%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob53.6%

H 56% / xG 1.8-1.0 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.0%

#2 1–0 10.7%

#3 2–1 9.8%

#4 2–0 9.6%

#5 0–1 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bristol Rovers1.8

Cheltenham1.0

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.7% · O3.5 PROB 31.4%

Form & verdict PPG

BRISTOL ROVERS · PPG 1.55

CHELTENHAM · PPG 0.95

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

55%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.55) > Away POOR (0.95)

Win probability 1X2

Bristol Rovers (H) 55.5%

ODDS 1.81 · IMPLIED 55.2% EV +0.5%

Draw 23.1%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -16.8%

Cheltenham (A) 21.4%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -10.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bristol Rovers face Cheltenham in England - League Two on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bristol Rovers a 56% chance, the draw 23% and Cheltenham 21%, so Bristol Rovers are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Bristol Rovers and 1.0 for Cheltenham (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bristol Rovers are averaging 1.55 points per game versus 0.95 for Cheltenham. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +3.6%. This match finished 4-0.

Bristol Rovers vs Cheltenham Prediction— England - League Two

Match Preview & Prediction

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