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Barnet vs Gillingham Prediction— England - League Two

Matchday 45 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 14:00

Barnet

PPG 1.50 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWWW

6 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Gillingham

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLLW

// Model verdict

Home 69% chance

Model probability 64.1% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.5%0-15.2%0-22.1%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-012.6%1-110.0%1-24.0%1-31.1%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.2%2-19.7%2-23.9%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-07.9%3-16.3%3-22.5%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-05.9%4+-14.7%4+-21.9%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 64.1% 71.4% 1.40 -10.3%

Draw 21.2% 21.7% 4.60 -2.5%

Away win 14.7% 14.1% 7.10 +4.4%

Over 2.5 51.3% 58.8% 1.70 -12.8%

Over 3.5 29.2% 35.7% 2.80 -18.2%

BTTS 46.9% 52.4% 1.91 -10.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 61 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -12.1%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 6-2

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob46.9%

H 64% / xG 1.9-0.8 / O2.5 51% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 12.6%

#2 2–0 12.2%

#3 1–1 10.0%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 3–0 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Barnet1.9

Gillingham0.8

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.3% · O3.5 PROB 29.2%

Form & verdict PPG

BARNET · PPG 1.50

GILLINGHAM · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

69%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.50) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Barnet (H) 64.1%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -10.3%

Draw 21.2%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV -2.5%

Gillingham (A) 14.7%

ODDS 7.10 · IMPLIED 14.1% EV +4.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Barnet face Gillingham in England - League Two on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Barnet a 64% chance, the draw 21% and Gillingham 15%, so Barnet are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Barnet and 0.8 for Gillingham (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Barnet are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.00 for Gillingham. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +4.4%. This match finished 6-2.

Barnet vs Gillingham Prediction— England - League Two

Match Preview & Prediction

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