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Accrington vs Crawley Town Prediction— England - League Two

Regular Season - 45 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 14:00

Accrington

PPG 1.41 · HOME

3 – 3

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Crawley Town

PPG 0.64 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 56.2% vs bookmaker-implied 31.3% — a clear edge.

+79.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.7%0-18.1%0-22.6%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-018.1%1-111.5%1-23.7%1-30.8%1-4+0.1%2 2-012.9%2-18.2%2-22.6%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-06.1%3-13.9%3-21.2%3-30.3%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-11.9%4+-20.6%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.2% 31.3% 3.20 +79.8%

Draw 27.2% 30.3% 3.30 -10.2%

Away win 16.6% 45.5% 2.20 -63.5%

Over 2.5 34.0% 48.8% 2.05 -30.3%

Over 3.5 15.4% 26.7% 3.75 -42.3%

BTTS 35.7% 55.6% 1.80 -35.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 9.4%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 61%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-3

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob35.7%

H 56% / xG 1.4-0.6 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 36%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 18.1%

#2 2–0 12.9%

#3 0–0 12.7%

#4 1–1 11.5%

#5 2–1 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Accrington1.4

Crawley Town0.6

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.0% · O3.5 PROB 15.4%

Form & verdict PPG

ACCRINGTON · PPG 1.41

CRAWLEY TOWN · PPG 0.64

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.41) > Away POOR (0.64)

Win probability 1X2

Accrington (H) 56.2%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +79.8%

Draw 27.2%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -10.2%

Crawley Town (A) 16.6%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -63.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Accrington face Crawley Town in England - League Two on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Accrington a 56% chance, the draw 27% and Crawley Town 17%, so Accrington are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Accrington and 0.6 for Crawley Town (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 36% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Accrington are averaging 1.41 points per game versus 0.64 for Crawley Town. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +79.8%. This match finished 3-3.

Accrington vs Crawley Town Prediction— England - League Two

Match Preview & Prediction

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