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Wigan Athletic vs AFC Wimbledon Prediction— England - League One

Matchday 45 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 14:00

Wigan Athletic

PPG 1.68 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDLL

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

AFC Wimbledon

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLWL

// Model verdict

Home 50% chance

Model probability 61.1% vs bookmaker-implied 45.5% — a clear edge.

+34.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.2%0-15.9%0-22.4%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-013.1%1-110.7%1-24.3%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.9%2-19.7%2-23.9%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-07.2%3-15.9%3-22.4%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-04.9%4+-14.0%4+-21.6%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 61.1% 45.5% 2.20 +34.4%

Draw 22.5% 30.8% 3.25 -26.9%

Away win 16.4% 30.8% 3.25 -46.7%

Over 2.5 49.0% 46.5% 2.15 +5.3%

Over 3.5 27.1% 25.0% 4.00 +8.4%

BTTS 46.7% 54.1% 1.85 -13.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 70 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 34%

ROI -51.6%

Bet Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob46.7%

H 61% / xG 1.8-0.8 / O2.5 49% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 13.1%

#2 2–0 11.9%

#3 1–1 10.7%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 0–0 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Wigan Athletic1.8

AFC Wimbledon0.8

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.0% · O3.5 PROB 27.1%

Form & verdict PPG

WIGAN ATHLETIC · PPG 1.68

AFC WIMBLEDON · PPG 1.00

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

Chance this pick lands

50%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.68) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Wigan Athletic (H) 61.1%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +34.4%

Draw 22.5%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -26.9%

AFC Wimbledon (A) 16.4%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -46.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Wigan Athletic face AFC Wimbledon in England - League One on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Wigan Athletic a 61% chance, the draw 23% and AFC Wimbledon 16%, so Wigan Athletic are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Wigan Athletic and 0.8 for AFC Wimbledon (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Wigan Athletic are averaging 1.68 points per game versus 1.00 for AFC Wimbledon. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +34.4%. This match finished 0-1.

Wigan Athletic vs AFC Wimbledon Prediction— England - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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