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Plymouth vs Port Vale Prediction— England - League One

Matchday 45 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 14:00

Plymouth

PPG 1.41 · HOME

LAST 5

DWDWW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Port Vale

PPG 0.86 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLWL

// Model verdict

Home 76% chance

Model probability 72.2% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.2%0-14.0%0-21.3%0-30.3%0-4+0.0%1 1-013.2%1-18.5%1-22.7%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.2%2-19.1%2-22.9%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-010.1%3-16.5%3-22.1%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-09.0%4+-15.7%4+-21.8%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 72.2% 76.9% 1.30 -6.1%

Draw 18.0% 20.8% 4.80 -13.6%

Away win 9.8% 9.3% 10.75 +5.3%

Over 2.5 52.7% 60.6% 1.65 -13.0%

Over 3.5 30.5% 38.5% 2.60 -20.7%

BTTS 41.8% 51.3% 1.95 -18.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 70 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 34%

ROI -51.6%

Bet Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob41.8%

H 72% / xG 2.1-0.6 / O2.5 53% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 14.2%

#2 1–0 13.2%

#3 3–0 10.1%

#4 2–1✓ 9.1%

#5 1–1 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Plymouth2.1

Port Vale0.6

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.7% · O3.5 PROB 30.5%

Form & verdict PPG

PLYMOUTH · PPG 1.41

PORT VALE · PPG 0.86

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

76%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.41) > Away POOR (0.86)

Win probability 1X2

Plymouth (H) 72.2%

ODDS 1.30 · IMPLIED 76.9% EV -6.1%

Draw 18.0%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV -13.6%

Port Vale (A) 9.8%

ODDS 10.75 · IMPLIED 9.3% EV +5.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Plymouth face Port Vale in England - League One on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Plymouth a 72% chance, the draw 18% and Port Vale 10%, so Plymouth are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Plymouth and 0.6 for Port Vale (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Plymouth are averaging 1.41 points per game versus 0.86 for Port Vale. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +5.3%. This match finished 2-1.

Plymouth vs Port Vale Prediction— England - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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