Plymouth vs Port Vale Prediction— England - League One

England - League One Regular Season - 45 Home Park· Plymouth Saturday, April 25, 2026 14:00

Plymouth PPG 1.41

2-1 HIT CS4

Port Vale PPG 0.86

Away· +5.3% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Plymouth face Port Vale in England - League One on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Plymouth a 72% chance, the draw 18% and Port Vale 10%, so Plymouth are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Plymouth and 0.6 for Port Vale (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Plymouth are averaging 1.41 points per game versus 0.86 for Port Vale. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +5.3%. This match finished 2-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 72.2%

Odds: 1.30 EV: -6.1%

Draw 18.0%

Odds: 4.80 EV: -13.6%

Away 9.8%

Odds: 10.75 EV: +5.3%

Model lean: Home Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 52.7% Odds: 1.65 -13.0%

Over 3.5 30.5% Odds: 2.60 -20.7%

BTTS 41.8% Odds: 1.95 -18.5%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS NO → YES ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 2-0 ✘

2nd 1-0 ✘

3rd 3-0 ✘

4th 2-1 ✔

5th 1-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Plymouth

2.15

Port Vale

0.64

Model SuggestionHome -6.1% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Home, but EV is -6.1% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Away (+5.3%) — probability too low to qualify.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 35%

O2.5/Under 51%

BTTS/No 53%

Score Hit 37%

ROI -55.8%

Bet Hit 26% (23 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.41) > Away POOR (0.86)