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Lincoln City vs Wycombe Prediction— England - League One

Regular Season - 45 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 14:00

Lincoln City

PPG 2.50 · HOME

4 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Wycombe

PPG 0.95 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 76.6% vs bookmaker-implied 55.2% — a clear edge.

+38.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.3%0-12.9%0-21.0%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-010.6%1-17.2%1-22.5%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.1%2-18.9%2-23.0%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-010.7%3-17.3%3-22.5%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-011.9%4+-18.1%4+-22.8%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 76.6% 55.2% 1.81 +38.6%

Draw 15.2% 27.0% 3.70 -43.8%

Away win 8.3% 24.4% 4.10 -66.0%

Over 2.5 60.9% 54.6% 1.83 +11.5%

Over 3.5 38.6% 32.3% 3.10 +19.7%

BTTS 45.2% 58.8% 1.70 -23.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 35%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 37%

ROI -13.9%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 0 58%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-3

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob45.2%

H 77% / xG 2.5-0.7 / O2.5 61% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.1%

#2 3–0 10.7%

#3 1–0 10.6%

#4 2–1 8.9%

#5 3–1 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lincoln City2.5

Wycombe0.7

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.9% · O3.5 PROB 38.6%

Form & verdict PPG

LINCOLN CITY · PPG 2.50

WYCOMBE · PPG 0.95

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.50), Away POOR (0.95) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Lincoln City (H) 76.6%

ODDS 1.81 · IMPLIED 55.2% EV +38.6%

Draw 15.2%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -43.8%

Wycombe (A) 8.3%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -66.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lincoln City face Wycombe in England - League One on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lincoln City a 77% chance, the draw 15% and Wycombe 8%, so Lincoln City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Lincoln City and 0.7 for Wycombe (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lincoln City are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 0.95 for Wycombe. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +38.6%. This match finished 4-3.

Lincoln City vs Wycombe Prediction— England - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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