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Cardiff City vs Northampton Prediction— England - League One

Regular Season - 45 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 14:00

Cardiff City

PPG 2.27 · HOME

5 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Northampton

PPG 0.59 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 87.3% vs bookmaker-implied 86.2% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.0%0-11.5%0-20.4%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-09.1%1-14.4%1-21.1%1-30.2%1-4+0.0%2 2-013.7%2-16.6%2-21.6%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-013.8%3-16.7%3-21.6%3-30.3%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-022.1%4+-110.7%4+-22.6%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 87.3% 86.2% 1.16 +1.3%

Draw 9.3% 13.9% 7.20 -33.0%

Away win 3.5% 6.9% 14.50 -49.3%

Over 2.5 68.0% 74.1% 1.35 -8.2%

Over 3.5 46.5% 52.6% 1.90 -11.7%

BTTS 36.5% 52.4% 1.91 -30.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 35%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 37%

ROI -13.9%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 0 80%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-1

xG (home)3.0 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob36.5%

H 87% / xG 3.0-0.5 / O2.5 68% / NoBTTS 36%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 13.8%

#2 2–0 13.7%

#3 4–0 10.4%

#4 1–0 9.1%

#5 3–1 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cardiff City3.0

Northampton0.5

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.0% · O3.5 PROB 46.5%

Form & verdict PPG

CARDIFF CITY · PPG 2.27

NORTHAMPTON · PPG 0.59

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.27), Away POOR (0.59) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Cardiff City (H) 87.3%

ODDS 1.16 · IMPLIED 86.2% EV +1.3%

Draw 9.3%

ODDS 7.20 · IMPLIED 13.9% EV -33.0%

Northampton (A) 3.5%

ODDS 14.50 · IMPLIED 6.9% EV -49.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cardiff City face Northampton in England - League One on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cardiff City a 87% chance, the draw 9% and Northampton 4%, so Cardiff City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.0 for Cardiff City and 0.5 for Northampton (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 37% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cardiff City are averaging 2.27 points per game versus 0.59 for Northampton. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +1.3%. This match finished 5-1.

Cardiff City vs Northampton Prediction— England - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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