Burton Albion vs Exeter City Prediction— England - League One

England - League One Regular Season - 45 Pirelli Stadium· Burton upon Trent Saturday, April 25, 2026 14:00

Burton Albion PPG 1.41

1-1 HIT CS2

Exeter City PPG 0.77

Home· +0.5% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Burton Albion face Exeter City in England - League One on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Burton Albion a 52% chance, the draw 26% and Exeter City 22%, so Burton Albion are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Burton Albion and 0.9 for Exeter City (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 42% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Burton Albion are averaging 1.41 points per game versus 0.77 for Exeter City. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +0.5%. This match finished 1-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 51.8%

Odds: 1.94 EV: +0.5%

Draw 26.3%

Odds: 3.55 EV: -6.6%

Away 21.9%

Odds: 3.70 EV: -19.0%

Model lean: Home

Result: Draw ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 41.8% Odds: 1.80 -24.8%

Over 3.5 21.2% Odds: 2.95 -37.5%

BTTS 44.9% Odds: 1.62 -27.3%

O2.5 UNDER → UNDER ✔ BTTS NO → YES ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-0 ✘

2nd 1-1 ✔

3rd 2-0 ✘

4th 0-0 ✘

5th 2-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Burton Albion

1.49

Exeter City

0.87

Model SuggestionHome +0.5% ROI TRACKS: Home
Tracked ROI market: Home. 

League Track Record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 35%

O2.5/Under 51%

BTTS/No 53%

Score Hit 37%

ROI -55.8%

Bet Hit 26% (23 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.41) > Away POOR (0.77)