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Burton Albion vs Exeter City Prediction— England - League One

Regular Season - 45 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 14:00

Burton Albion

PPG 1.41 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Exeter City

PPG 0.77 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 51.8% vs bookmaker-implied 51.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.5%0-18.2%0-23.6%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-014.1%1-112.2%1-25.3%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.5%2-19.1%2-23.9%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-05.2%3-14.5%3-22.0%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-12.3%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.8% 51.5% 1.94 +0.5%

Draw 26.3% 28.2% 3.55 -6.6%

Away win 21.9% 27.0% 3.70 -19.0%

Over 2.5 41.8% 55.6% 1.80 -24.8%

Over 3.5 21.2% 33.9% 2.95 -37.5%

BTTS 44.9% 61.7% 1.62 -27.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 35%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 37%

ROI -13.9%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob44.9%

H 52% / xG 1.5-0.9 / U2.5 42% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 14.1%

#2 1–1✓ 12.2%

#3 2–0 10.5%

#4 0–0 9.5%

#5 2–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Burton Albion1.5

Exeter City0.9

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 41.8% · O3.5 PROB 21.2%

Form & verdict PPG

BURTON ALBION · PPG 1.41

EXETER CITY · PPG 0.77

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.41) > Away POOR (0.77)

Win probability 1X2

Burton Albion (H) 51.8%

ODDS 1.94 · IMPLIED 51.5% EV +0.5%

Draw 26.3%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -6.6%

Exeter City (A) 21.9%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -19.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Burton Albion face Exeter City in England - League One on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Burton Albion a 52% chance, the draw 26% and Exeter City 22%, so Burton Albion are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Burton Albion and 0.9 for Exeter City (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 42% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Burton Albion are averaging 1.41 points per game versus 0.77 for Exeter City. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +0.5%. This match finished 1-1.

Burton Albion vs Exeter City Prediction— England - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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