Today / England - League One / Bradford vs Bolton

Bradford vs Bolton Prediction— England - League One

Matchday 45 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 14:00

Bradford

PPG 2.23 · HOME

LAST 5

DDWLL

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Bolton

PPG 1.23 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLWWW

// Model verdict

Home 42% chance

Model probability 50.1% vs bookmaker-implied 38.8% — a clear edge.

+29.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.3%0-18.5%0-23.9%0-31.2%0-4+0.3%1 1-013.6%1-112.4%1-25.6%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.0%2-19.1%2-24.1%2-31.3%2-4+0.3%3 3-04.9%3-14.4%3-22.0%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-12.2%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.1% 38.8% 2.58 +29.3%

Draw 26.5% 30.8% 3.25 -13.9%

Away win 23.4% 37.6% 2.66 -37.8%

Over 2.5 42.4% 51.8% 1.93 -18.2%

Over 3.5 21.6% 30.3% 3.30 -28.7%

BTTS 45.9% 59.9% 1.67 -23.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 70 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 34%

ROI -51.6%

Bet Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob45.9%

H 50% / xG 1.5-0.9 / U2.5 42% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 13.6%

#2 1–1✓ 12.4%

#3 2–0 10.0%

#4 0–0 9.3%

#5 2–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bradford1.5

Bolton0.9

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.4% · O3.5 PROB 21.6%

Form & verdict PPG

BRADFORD · PPG 2.23

BOLTON · PPG 1.23

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

Chance this pick lands

42%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.23) vs P(Home)=50.1%

Win probability 1X2

Bradford (H) 50.1%

ODDS 2.58 · IMPLIED 38.8% EV +29.3%

Draw 26.5%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -13.9%

Bolton (A) 23.4%

ODDS 2.66 · IMPLIED 37.6% EV -37.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bradford face Bolton in England - League One on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bradford a 50% chance, the draw 27% and Bolton 23%, so Bradford are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Bradford and 0.9 for Bolton (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 42% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bradford are averaging 2.23 points per game versus 1.23 for Bolton. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +29.3%. This match finished 1-1.

Bradford vs Bolton Prediction— England - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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