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Blackpool vs Leyton Orient Prediction— England - League One

Matchday 45 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 14:00

Blackpool

PPG 1.73 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWWW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Leyton Orient

PPG 0.95 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDLLD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 53% chance

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 61.3% vs bookmaker-implied 50.0% — a clear edge.

+22.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.2%0-14.8%0-22.7%0-31.0%0-4+0.4%1 1-08.6%1-19.7%1-25.5%1-32.1%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.7%2-19.9%2-25.6%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-05.9%3-16.7%3-23.8%3-31.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-04.8%4+-15.4%4+-23.1%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 58.1% 39.1% 2.56 +48.7%

Draw 21.2% 32.8% 3.05 -35.3%

Away win 20.7% 35.5% 2.82 -41.6%

Over 2.5 61.3% 50.0% 2.00 +22.6%

Over 3.5 38.9% 29.4% 3.40 +32.3%

BTTS 58.9% 58.8% 1.70 +0.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 70 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 34%

ROI -51.6%

Bet Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob58.9%

H 58% / xG 2.0-1.1 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.9%

#2 1–1 9.7%

#3 2–0 8.7%

#4 1–0✓ 8.6%

#5 3–1 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Blackpool2.0

Leyton Orient1.1

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.3% · O3.5 PROB 38.9%

Form & verdict PPG

BLACKPOOL · PPG 1.73

LEYTON ORIENT · PPG 0.95

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

Chance this pick lands

53%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.73) > Away POOR (0.95)

Win probability 1X2

Blackpool (H) 58.1%

ODDS 2.56 · IMPLIED 39.1% EV +48.7%

Draw 21.2%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV -35.3%

Leyton Orient (A) 20.7%

ODDS 2.82 · IMPLIED 35.5% EV -41.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Blackpool face Leyton Orient in England - League One on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Blackpool a 58% chance, the draw 21% and Leyton Orient 21%, so Blackpool are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Blackpool and 1.1 for Leyton Orient (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Blackpool are averaging 1.73 points per game versus 0.95 for Leyton Orient. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +48.7%. This match finished 1-0.

Blackpool vs Leyton Orient Prediction— England - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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