Today / QP Rangers vs Derby County

QP Rangers vs Derby County Prediction

Saturday, April 25, 2026

QP Rangers

PPG 1.50 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Derby County

PPG 1.36 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.50), Away AVERAGE (1.36)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.8%0-16.6%0-24.5%0-32.0%0-4+0.9%1 1-08.1%1-111.0%1-27.5%1-33.4%1-4+1.6%2 2-06.7%2-19.2%2-26.2%2-32.8%2-4+1.3%3 3-03.7%3-15.1%3-23.5%3-31.6%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-13.1%4+-22.1%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.8% — — —

Draw 23.9% — — —

Away win 31.3% — — —

Over 2.5 58.4% — — —

Over 3.5 36.0% — — —

BTTS 60.3% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob60.3%

H 45% / xG 1.7-1.4 / O2.5 58% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.0%

#2 2–1 9.2%

#3 1–0 8.1%

#4 1–2 7.5%

#5 2–0✓ 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

QP Rangers1.7

Derby County1.4

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 58.4% · O3.5 PROB 36.0%

Form & verdict PPG

QP RANGERS · PPG 1.50

DERBY COUNTY · PPG 1.36

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.50), Away AVERAGE (1.36)

Win probability 1X2

QP Rangers (H) 44.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 23.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Derby County (A) 31.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

QP Rangers face Derby County on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives QP Rangers a 45% chance, the draw 24% and Derby County 31%, so QP Rangers are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for QP Rangers and 1.4 for Derby County (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, QP Rangers are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.36 for Derby County. This match finished 2-0.

QP Rangers vs Derby County Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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