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Liverpool vs Crystal Palace Prediction— England - Premier League

Matchday 34 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 14:00

Liverpool

PPG 1.94 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWWL

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Crystal Palace

PPG 1.53 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDLDL

// Model verdict

Home 63% chance

Model probability 56.0% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.9%0-16.9%0-23.0%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-013.1%1-111.5%1-25.0%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.9%2-19.6%2-24.2%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-06.1%3-15.3%3-22.3%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.7%4+-13.2%4+-21.4%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.0% 65.4% 1.53 -14.3%

Draw 24.3% 23.1% 4.33 +5.2%

Away win 19.7% 18.5% 5.40 +6.4%

Over 2.5 46.7% 61.7% 1.62 -24.3%

Over 3.5 25.2% 39.2% 2.55 -35.7%

BTTS 47.4% 58.8% 1.70 -19.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 74 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -9.4%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob47.4%

H 56% / xG 1.7-0.9 / O2.5 47% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 13.1%

#2 1–1 11.5%

#3 2–0 10.9%

#4 2–1 9.6%

#5 0–0 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Liverpool1.7

Crystal Palace0.9

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.7% · O3.5 PROB 25.2%

Form & verdict PPG

LIVERPOOL · PPG 1.94

CRYSTAL PALACE · PPG 1.53

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

63%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.94) > Away GOOD (1.53)

Win probability 1X2

Liverpool (H) 56.0%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV -14.3%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV +5.2%

Crystal Palace (A) 19.7%

ODDS 5.40 · IMPLIED 18.5% EV +6.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Liverpool face Crystal Palace in England - Premier League on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Liverpool a 56% chance, the draw 24% and Crystal Palace 20%, so Liverpool are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Liverpool and 0.9 for Crystal Palace (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Liverpool are averaging 1.94 points per game versus 1.53 for Crystal Palace. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +6.4%. This match finished 3-1.

Liverpool vs Crystal Palace Prediction— England - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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