Today / Katwijk vs ACV Assen

Katwijk vs ACV Assen Prediction

Saturday, April 25, 2026

Katwijk

PPG 1.57 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

ACV Assen

PPG 0.73 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.1%0-12.9%0-22.0%0-30.9%0-4+0.4%1 1-05.2%1-17.2%1-25.0%1-32.3%1-4+1.1%2 2-06.4%2-18.9%2-26.2%2-32.9%2-4+1.4%3 3-05.3%3-17.4%3-25.1%3-32.4%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-05.9%4+-18.2%4+-25.7%4+-32.6%4+-4+1.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 61.1% — — —

Draw 18.5% — — —

Away win 20.4% — — —

Over 2.5 74.1% — — —

Over 3.5 53.9% — — —

BTTS 68.8% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 73%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob68.8%

H 61% / xG 2.5-1.4 / O2.5 74% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.9%

#2 3–1 7.4%

#3 1–1 7.2%

#4 2–0 6.4%

#5 2–2 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Katwijk2.5

ACV Assen1.4

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 74.1% · O3.5 PROB 53.9%

Form & verdict PPG

KATWIJK · PPG 1.57

ACV ASSEN · PPG 0.73

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.57) vs P(Home)=61.1%

Win probability 1X2

Katwijk (H) 61.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 18.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

ACV Assen (A) 20.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Katwijk face ACV Assen on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Katwijk a 61% chance, the draw 19% and ACV Assen 20%, so Katwijk are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Katwijk and 1.4 for ACV Assen (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 74% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Katwijk are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 0.73 for ACV Assen. This match finished 3-2.

Katwijk vs ACV Assen Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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