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Sparta Nijkerk vs Hoogeveen Prediction— Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Saturday

Group A - 31 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 13:00

Sparta Nijkerk

PPG 1.87 · HOME

6 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Hoogeveen

PPG 1.27 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.0%0-11.4%0-20.9%0-30.4%0-4+0.2%1 1-03.3%1-14.5%1-23.0%1-31.4%1-4+0.6%2 2-05.4%2-17.3%2-24.9%2-32.2%2-4+1.0%3 3-05.8%3-17.8%3-25.3%3-32.4%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-010.4%4+-114.1%4+-29.5%4+-34.3%4+-4+1.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 73.9% — — —

Draw 13.6% — — —

Away win 12.5% — — —

Over 2.5 83.4% — — —

Over 3.5 66.9% — — —

BTTS 71.1% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -53.7%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 80%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 6-1

xG (home)3.2 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob71.1%

H 74% / xG 3.2-1.4 / O2.5 83% / BTTS 71%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 7.8%

#2 2–1 7.3%

#3 4–1 6.3%

#4 3–0 5.8%

#5 2–0 5.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sparta Nijkerk3.2

Hoogeveen1.4

COMBINED 4.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 83.4% · O3.5 PROB 66.9%

Form & verdict PPG

SPARTA NIJKERK · PPG 1.87

HOOGEVEEN · PPG 1.27

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.87) > Away AVERAGE (1.27)

Win probability 1X2

Sparta Nijkerk (H) 73.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 13.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Hoogeveen (A) 12.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Sparta Nijkerk face Hoogeveen in Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Saturday on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sparta Nijkerk a 74% chance, the draw 14% and Hoogeveen 13%, so Sparta Nijkerk are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.2 for Sparta Nijkerk and 1.4 for Hoogeveen (4.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 83% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 71% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sparta Nijkerk are averaging 1.87 points per game versus 1.27 for Hoogeveen. This match finished 6-1.

Sparta Nijkerk vs Hoogeveen Prediction— Netherlands - Derde Divisie - Saturday

Match Preview & Prediction

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